Skip to content
Rap Trends

Planning model

Assumptions, not forecasts

A planning model built on stated assumptions. Not a forecast, not a measurement, and not a projection anyone has validated. Every figure below carries a value, a unit, a basis and a source. Where no citation exists the source reads unsourced, in the table and not in a footnote — 16 of 17 figures on this page are unsourced. Published as facts they would be fabricated statistics, so they are not published as facts.

Standing disclosure

RAP TRENDS holds no FCC licence and no spectrum. No carriage, distribution or partnership agreement exists with anyone, in any market. Distribution is not guaranteed. Software secures none of this. Qualified broadcast counsel and music-licensing professionals must approve the final operating model before launch.

Market and pricing

Stated assumptions

FigureValueBasisSource
Tri-State television households in the target market7,400,000 householdsPlanning figure carried forward from the distribution plan. No measurement service has been licensed to confirm it.Unsourced
Share of those households receiving over-the-air18 % of householdsAssumed antenna penetration. Not measured, not licensed from a ratings provider.Unsourced
Share of OTA households with an ATSC 3.0 capable receiver at launch12 % of OTA householdsAssumption about receiver replacement rates. Directly determines how much of the addressable capability is reachable on day one.Unsourced
Addressable household base at launch160,000 householdsDerived from the three assumptions above, so it inherits all of their uncertainty. A derived assumption is still an assumption.Unsourced
OTA spot CPM range8 – 18 USD per thousand impressionsAssumed range for a new entrant with no ratings history. No rate has been quoted to or by anyone.Unsourced
FAST and programmatic CPM range12 – 25 USD per thousand impressionsAssumed range. Actual yield depends on platform revenue share terms that have not been negotiated.Unsourced
Assumed premium for an addressable impression over a broadcast one2 – 4 × base CPMAssumed multiple. Depends entirely on consented reach, which does not exist yet.Unsourced
Audio sponsorship CPM range6 – 14 USD per thousand listenersAssumed range. Music performance rights are a cost against this line regardless of transmission method.Unsourced
Datacasting lease rateOpen USD per Mbps per monthNo rate has been set. The bandwidth cost is real and modelled against multiplex capacity; the price is not modelled at all.Unsourced
Revenue multiple used in the plan's valuation languageNot adopted ×The distribution plan carries a multiple. It has no citation and no comparable set behind it, so it is not reproduced as a figure here.Unsourced
Markets with a signed carriage agreement0 marketsThis one is not an assumption. No agreement exists with any licensed broadcaster in any market.Known and stated
Multiplex capacity assumed available from a partner station25 MbpsDesign allocation. The actual figure is a term that would have to be negotiated with a licensee.Unsourced

Audience

The thesis, as assumptions

The audience thesis is a position, not a finding. Segment weightings overlap and do not sum to 100. Segment membership is derived from tune-in to specific programming, never from a demographic proxy.

FigureValueBasisSource
Core audienceGen Z and Millennial culture-first consumers thesisThe plan's positioning thesis. It has not been tested against research the network has commissioned or licensed.Unsourced
Segment mix — music and DJ culture35 % of addressable baseAssumed weighting of the segment mix. Not measured.Unsourced
Segment mix — sports and lifestyle25 % of addressable baseAssumed weighting of the segment mix. Not measured.Unsourced
Segment mix — Latino and Caribbean diaspora programming22 % of addressable baseAssumed weighting of programming affinity, not of anybody's ethnicity. Segment membership is derived from tune-in to specific blocks and never from a demographic proxy.Unsourced
Segment mix — event-goers18 % of addressable baseAssumed weighting of the segment mix. Segments overlap, so these do not sum to 100.Unsourced

Revenue

Six streams, one firewall

Over-the-air advertising

Planned

Spot inventory in the linear TV service, carried on a licensed partner station's signal. Addressable insertion is available where the receiver has an IP return path and the household has consented.

Mechanism — Sold by daypart against the linear grid; local avails reserved for the affiliate under the market agreement that would have to be negotiated.

Firewall — Spots sit around programming, never inside an editorial decision. No advertiser sees the submission queue and none influences the Index.

FAST and programmatic

Planned

The same linear service distributed to free ad-supported streaming platforms, with server-side insertion and programmatic demand alongside direct sales.

Mechanism — Revenue share with the platform on the platform's inventory, direct sale on the network's own avails.

Firewall — Programmatic demand is category-filtered before it can serve; the restricted-category rules apply identically to a bid and to a direct buy.

Audio monetisation

Planned

RAP TRENDS RADIO as an audio subchannel on the multiplex, plus the internet stream, the affiliate feed and podcast distribution.

Mechanism — Hourly report sponsorship, host-read positions and podcast pre-roll.

Firewall — A sponsored hour is labelled as sponsored on air and in the EPG. Music performance rights are owed on this service regardless of how it is transmitted.

Costs 1.5 Mbps of the 25 Mbps multiplex.

Spectrum and datacasting

Planned

Leasing part of the data layer on the multiplex to a third party for one-to-many file delivery. A datacasting customer buys bandwidth, and that bandwidth comes off the video services.

Mechanism — Sold per Mbps per month against the data subchannel. The allocation is an explicit line in the multiplex, not a spare-capacity assumption.

Firewall — A datacasting customer buys transport only. It buys no programming, no editorial placement and no chart position.

Costs 1 Mbps of the 25 Mbps multiplex.

Live event integration

Planned

The event-scoped LIVE service lit for a broadcast night, a festival or a tentpole, sold as an integrated package across broadcast, stream and on-site.

Mechanism — Event-level packages. While the LIVE subchannel is dark it earns nothing and returns its bitrate to the pool.

Firewall — An event sponsor is credited as a sponsor. Booking an event buys no coverage of the artists who appear at it.

Costs 7 Mbps of the 25 Mbps multiplex.

Brand sponsorship

Planned

Franchise-level presenting sponsorships and co-produced branded segments, priced off the published rate card.

Mechanism — Monthly or per-arc sponsorship of a named franchise, with stated deliverables and finite inventory.

Firewall — A sponsored programming block is labelled as sponsored wherever it renders — grid, EPG, on air and on the page. Sponsorship buys the surround, never the selection.

Not for sale

Nobody buys chart position. Not on any of these six streams, not at any price, and not through any intermediary.

Bandwidth is the cost

Audio, the event-scoped LIVE service and datacasting all draw on the same multiplex. Current allocation is 16.5 Mbps of 25 Mbps, leaving 8.5 Mbps of headroom. A datacasting deal visibly costs video bitrate.

Signal architecture and allocation

Positioning

What RAP TRENDS intends to offer

This replaces a competitor comparison table. That table made factual claims about what named companies do and do not offer, none of which we can verify. What follows states our own intent only; no row characterises another company.

Over-the-air reach

Intends to reach antenna households through a licensed partner station's signal, subject to an agreement that does not exist yet.

FAST distribution

Intends to distribute the same linear service to free ad-supported streaming platforms.

Audio layer

Intends to run a 24/7 audio service as a subchannel on the same signal and as an internet stream.

ATSC 3.0 interactivity

Intends to use the IP return path for interactivity, datacasting and consented household-level addressability.

Live event integration

Intends to light an event-scoped service for broadcast nights, festivals and tentpoles.

No app required

Intends to be receivable on an antenna without a subscription, an account or an app install.

Roadmap

Three phases, all planned

0 – 90 days

Quiet launch

Stand the signal chain and the newsroom up in public without claiming reach the network does not have.

  • Affiliate conversations opened in Market #1

    Planned

    Unnamed licensed stations approached; terms sheet drafted. No station has been approached to date.

  • Linear grid running end to end

    Planned

    The 24-hour partner grid validating clean against the schedule validator every day.

  • FAST application submitted

    Planned

    Platform applications prepared and filed. No platform has accepted anything.

  • Rights register populated

    Planned

    Every asset carries a rights record before it can be scheduled. The gate fails closed until it does.

  • Broadcast counsel engaged

    Planned

    Counsel retained to review the operating model, and music-licensing professionals engaged on the audio service.

90 – 180 days

Cultural activation

Make the network worth watching before making it worth buying.

  • First event-scoped LIVE night

    Planned

    The LIVE subchannel provisioned, lit and returned to dark, with its bitrate reclaimed.

  • Audio service on air

    Planned

    RAP TRENDS RADIO running as a subchannel and an internet stream, with performance-rights licences in place first.

  • Index running on licensed signals

    Planned

    At least one licensed data source connected, replacing simulated Index output.

  • Sponsorship inventory opened

    Planned

    Rate card published and franchise sponsorships sold, with every placement labelled.

6 – 12 months

Scale and second market

Repeat the market-one model somewhere else, and sell the three distribution layers as one.

  • Market #2 affiliate slot opened

    Planned

    A second unnamed licensed affiliate slot, on the same terms structure as Market #1.

  • Addressable insertion live on consented households

    Planned

    Household-level insertion running only where consent is recorded, with retention and opt-out enforced.

  • Datacasting customer signed

    Planned

    A data-layer lease with an explicit Mbps allocation charged against multiplex capacity.

  • Unified insertion order in market

    Planned

    OTA, FAST and audio packaged as a single buy rather than three line items.

Nothing on this roadmap has been achieved. Every milestone is marked planned because every milestone is planned.